SF and a realistic "Long Night" scenario

[jason taylor]

In the Star Trader ap for Kindle, there is a Long Night scenario that seems to be caused by the loss of contact with the rest of the human race.

[Varyon]

Originally Posted by starslayer

The story is about the descendants of the future-equivalent of the mennonite/amish groups who eschewed technology and said no to the moving on. They were left behind by there own choice, continued to live, by choice, a hybrid TL 5/x society.

Depending on what the exit was, those who opted to remain needn't be technophobes. If "ascension" looks to them like "suicide," or if they are Christians who figure they'll miss out on the Second Coming if they exit stage left (or Muslims who figure the Mahdi will show up once all the non-believers have left, or Jews who figure the Messiah is set to show up on Earth, etc), they may well have no issue with the rest of technology but not want to join in. If the vast majority of people want to be involved, however, and those who are staying behind don't band together well, they may end up too spread out to maintain the current TL, which could result in a Long Night style scenario.

[Flaco76]

What about a financial collapse? The first colony vessels are sent out and stock in the development corporations skyrockets. The Media is full of nice advutainment specials from the corporations promising 'new opportunities for all'. The stock doubles, triples and more and more get issued. Everyone from all classes, societies, countries own stock. The first colonies are established and biological and mineral samples are sent back, everyone is breathless in anticipation.

Meanwhile, a few people begin to quietly sell off shares even taking a loss on profits.

The results are released and the first reports of life on the frontier appear. The mineral and biological samples are good but about the same level as Earth. No miracle drugs or amazing minerals, chemicals. Life is okay but it will require more investment and more people to really develop the colonies. The information networks are flooded and millions try to sell their stocks at the same time. Within two hours most financial markets are closed by government orders but it is too late. When the markets reopen the next day the sell orders are continuing.

Everyone except for a few lucky investors are devastated. Rioting and mass demonstrations start to rock several cities. People begin to blame each other and police and public security services are stretched thin. One development corporation offers free transit to stock owners and some accept. Financial regulators investing several banks and corporations uncover fraud and insider trading along with government corruption. Extrasolar development is placed on hold while people deal with the 'Emergency'.

[jason taylor]

Originally Posted by Flaco76

What about a financial collapse? The first colony vessels are sent out and stock in the development corporations skyrockets. The Media is full of nice advutainment specials from the corporations promising 'new opportunities for all'. The stock doubles, triples and more and more get issued. Everyone from all classes, societies, countries own stock. The first colonies are established and biological and mineral samples are sent back, everyone is breathless in anticipation.

Meanwhile, a few people begin to quietly sell off shares even taking a loss on profits.

The results are released and the first reports of life on the frontier appear. The mineral and biological samples are good but about the same level as Earth. No miracle drugs or amazing minerals, chemicals. Life is okay but it will require more investment and more people to really develop the colonies. The information networks are flooded and millions try to sell their stocks at the same time. Within two hours most financial markets are closed by government orders but it is too late. When the markets reopen the next day the sell orders are continuing.

Everyone except for a few lucky investors are devastated. Rioting and mass demonstrations start to rock several cities. People begin to blame each other and police and public security services are stretched thin. One development corporation offers free transit to stock owners and some accept. Financial regulators investing several banks and corporations uncover fraud and insider trading along with government corruption. Extrasolar development is placed on hold while people deal with the 'Emergency'.

The problem is that in a High TL society there is no financial collapse that can on it's own destroy a society. The Great Depression which was part of a global Depression helped precipitate World War II and World War II if it did not create a "Long Night" certainly created enough of a night in a lot of places.

However if, as is plausible enough, interstellar travel is so delicately established that it will shrink to an extent enough to cause a Long Night given hard enough of hard times, that would be satisfactory.

[Frost]

Originally Posted by Arith Winterfell

How does one create a realistic setup for a long night scenario and how it would realistically begin and come to a close?

Remember there is unlikely to be a single cause, you are looking for a sequence of events possibly over a generation or so.

The long night probably won't come about due to a financial crash. But if that crash aggravates an existing slowdown in the production of FTL shipping or further weakens an already weak central government which in turn triggers factional fighting in crucial systems then you have a potential long night on your hands.

How long will it last? This is up in the air, it depends upon how the connections are rebuilt it could take a couple of generations or even less on the other hand it might be centuries. I don't think most people will object to any timeline in this range

[Flaco76]

Originally Posted by Frost

Remember there is unlikely to be a single cause, you are looking for a sequence of events possibly over a generation or so.

The long night probably won't come about due to a financial crash. But if that crash aggravates an existing slowdown in the production of FTL shipping or further weakens an already weak central government which in turn triggers factional fighting in crucial systems then you have a potential long night on your hands.

How long will it last? This is up in the air, it depends upon how the connections are rebuilt it could take a couple of generations or even less on the other hand it might be centuries. I don't think most people will object to any timeline in this range

The Dark Ages in Europe were considered 'Dark' because of few records and the snobbery of Renaissance Italy. The Middle East and Asia at this time were still culturally and economically vibrant. So say the economic crash knocks a few corporations and governments down for two or three generations. By the time some countries or settlements build new vessels or establish new settlements the culture and technology of several colonies will have diverged.

[David Johnston2]

Originally Posted by jason taylor

The problem is that in a High TL society there is no financial collapse that can on it's own destroy a society.

That's OK. The described collapse doesn't destroy the society. It just ends interstellar trade (because it isn't profitable) leaving underdeveloped colonies to stumble along on their own.

[Flaco76]

Originally Posted by David Johnston2

That's OK. The described collapse doesn't destroy the society. It just ends interstellar trade (because it isn't profitable) leaving underdeveloped colonies to stumble along on their own.

So maybe travel during this time is more for technological and cultural exchanges. Rare and exotic goods and prototypes are still sent out. Religious pilgrims and missionaries travel to Earth and the colonies to spread the good word and visit Holy Sites.

[David Johnston2]

Originally Posted by Flaco76

So maybe travel during this time is more for technological and cultural exchanges. Rare and exotic goods and prototypes are still sent out. Religious pilgrims and missionaries travel to Earth and the colonies to spread the good word and visit Holy Sites.

The colonies have to develop their own infrastructure before they can start doing that. Earth has written them as more costly than they're worth.

[starslayer]

Originally Posted by Varyon

Depending on what the exit was, those who opted to remain needn't be technophobes. If "ascension" looks to them like "suicide," or if they are Christians who figure they'll miss out on the Second Coming if they exit stage left (or Muslims who figure the Mahdi will show up once all the non-believers have left, or Jews who figure the Messiah is set to show up on Earth, etc), they may well have no issue with the rest of technology but not want to join in. If the vast majority of people want to be involved, however, and those who are staying behind don't band together well, they may end up too spread out to maintain the current TL, which could result in a Long Night style scenario.

While I agree with your statement, I prefer to leave those 'left behind' as technophobes for a few reasons:

1. If the people left behind embraced technology and would try to maintain it then it would speak to a certain callousness of those who moved on for not providing the means for them to do so. On a fundamental level I like the concept of a completely 'nothing bad happened and no one was mean or uncaring' perpetuation to a long night.

2. Sufficiently advanced technology should be able to maintain itself with minimal outside intervention for a very long time, and the intervention required will be minimal, however if no one is there to maintain it at all then it may actually fall apart (or just no one has the codes or the knowledge to tell it to get back to work)