11-18-2017, 07:13 AM | #1 |
Join Date: Feb 2016
|
Does Interstellar Trade Make Sense For Realistic Science Fiction?
I was just curious if anyone else thought that the majority of the assumptions about interstellar trade did not make sense? Shipping essential materials lacking in a system? Yes, that makes sense. Shipping supplies for an outpost or a new colony? Yes, that makes sense. Shipping any raw goods between to established worlds? There is where I have a problem because of the markup for transportation costs.
In reality, the cost to operate a spaceship should probably be around 2.5% of its cost per month. A TL11^ Free Trader costs $94.3M, so it should cost $2.36M per month to operate. Since it has a cargo capacity of 300 tons, it should probably cost $10k per month to ship anything, since the owners will want to make a profit. If we assume that it takes one day to leave the hyperspace exclusion zone, one day to travel through one parsec of hyperspace to a new system, and one day to travel from the hyperspace exclusion zone to the destination, the minimum travel time for short journeys is 3 days, around 10/month. That would suggest a minimum cost for interstellar transportation of $1,000 per ton, but the suggested rate in Spaceships 2 is $10 per parsec, which would bankrupt any owner within a year. The passenger rate would be 10x the cargo rate. So, how do you deal with it in your games? Do you use the figures given by GURPS or do you use a more realistic approach? If you use a more realistic approach, what do people trade in your games? |
11-18-2017, 07:51 AM | #2 |
Join Date: Jul 2008
|
Re: Does Interstellar Trade Make Sense For Realistic Science Fiction?
For realistic science fiction, interstellar goods transport would cost an absurd amount and take a long time, and basically makes no sense. But you're not talking that kind of realistic, with your 'hyperspace exclusion zone'.
So it looks like you mean economically realistic, given highly unrealistic technological premises that lift it to the point of being at least technically plausible. There's a lot of interesting things to be said, I think, about the extent to which a solar system would have reason to import or export goods rather than running an almost entirely autarkic economy. Though that isn't where you seem to be going either... If the focus is on the profit/loss figures for individual shippers, first of all you probably shouldn't simply drop '2.5% per month' expenses as a fact on the ground without explanation. Where's that coming from? It's certainly not immediately obvious from Spaceships 2, which is where you seem to be deriving your other numbers. Other than that, your accounting of the price of transport is simply incorrect. This is right in the book on page 41: "For voyages that involve a combination of deep space, interface, or stardrive travel, calculate the rate based on each leg of the journey. In particular, many stardrives – especially jump and probability drives – function only in specific environments (far from a gravity well, at a particular jump point, etc.). For example, a starship may need to travel to a point at least 0.1 AU from a sizable planet before it can activate its hyperdrive. If this is the case, shipping rates are based on the sum of the deep-space and stardrive rates." In short, you're not expected to eat three days of travel time for one day of payment. You get paid for the STL flight too. Finally, the Dark Horse class free trader is not a design that's intended to be worth operating on milk runs. For that, you want the Anthem-class light star freighter, just above, with 50% more cargo capacity for less than a third the price. This is right in the descriptive text! The Dark Horse class is for adventurous operations that pull in a major hazard premium one way or another.
__________________
I don't know any 3e, so there is no chance that I am talking about 3e rules by accident. |
11-18-2017, 08:14 AM | #3 | |
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: traveller
|
Re: Does Interstellar Trade Make Sense For Realistic Science Fiction?
Quote:
At root, the question you have to answer for your setting is, "What is cheaper to ship than to manufacture in-system?" After all, a setting that can reach the next star system in a self-contained, reusable vessel probably won't have many problems mining asteroids and comets for basic commodities. If your freight rates work out low enough, comparative advantage may make shipping everything (except perhaps bulk construction materials) feasible. Colonies will often be established with an eye to what products they will produce for export. If your freight rates are high, the only things that will ship are luxury goods, unique biologicals, and information. Colonies will usually be established for social or political rather than economic reasons, with the intent of being entirely self-sufficient fairly quickly. |
|
11-18-2017, 08:47 AM | #4 | |
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: The plutonium rich regions of Washington State
|
Re: Does Interstellar Trade Make Sense For Realistic Science Fiction?
Quote:
http://panoptesv.com/RPGs/Settings/V.../VergeTech.php Trade between planets is every bit as viable as trade between, say, Lewiston, ID and Seattle, WA using train tracks and train cars. Luke |
|
11-18-2017, 08:49 AM | #5 | |
Join Date: Sep 2007
|
Re: Does Interstellar Trade Make Sense For Realistic Science Fiction?
Quote:
|
|
11-18-2017, 09:11 AM | #6 | |
Join Date: Jul 2008
|
Re: Does Interstellar Trade Make Sense For Realistic Science Fiction?
Quote:
In a super-elementary analysis, comparative advantage works when (letting A and B be costs locally and a and b be costs remotely, with transport cost T per unit): B > b/a*(A+T) + T or B/A > b/a + (b/a + 1) * T/A If your transport cost is high relative to the cost of your export, that's liable to get unattractive.
__________________
I don't know any 3e, so there is no chance that I am talking about 3e rules by accident. |
|
11-18-2017, 09:13 AM | #7 |
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: The Land of Enchantment
|
Re: Does Interstellar Trade Make Sense For Realistic Science Fiction?
The GURPS Traveller: Far Trader supplement talks about this a lot, especially about differentials between rich high-TL worlds and lower-TL worlds, and how trade under comparative advantage can benefit both. I mean, otherwise why would anyone ship farm equipment, really? Granted, it's not the same system as used in Spaceships, but the economics is still there. You mind find it useful.
That being said, you're correct that it seems unlikely that bulk commodity trade will be profitable in almost any FTL scheme, short of making space travel as cheap as marine shipping on Earth. The rub is getting it to orbit in the first place, the cost of which nothing short of antigravity can fix. And reactionless thrusters help, too. Which is essentially the Traveller model. But if you want non-superscience (except for FTL), then it's hard. Using any remotely non-superscience reaction drive, damned near everything on the Cargo Table on page 37 of Spaceships 2 is uneconomical to ship. Which is probably realistic. In such a scheme there are only a few things that might be worth shipping, such as colonists. Or information, if no FTL radio exists.
__________________
I'd need to get a grant and go shoot a thousand goats to figure it out. Last edited by acrosome; 11-18-2017 at 09:24 AM. |
11-18-2017, 09:59 AM | #8 | |
Join Date: Dec 2007
|
Re: Does Interstellar Trade Make Sense For Realistic Science Fiction?
Quote:
Last edited by David Johnston2; 11-18-2017 at 11:26 AM. |
|
11-18-2017, 10:12 AM | #9 | |
Join Date: Jul 2008
|
Re: Does Interstellar Trade Make Sense For Realistic Science Fiction?
Quote:
If you're lifting the stuff with rockets at the listed rates you lose most of it, though 10 of 36 entries remain with high enough price/ton to be possible.
__________________
I don't know any 3e, so there is no chance that I am talking about 3e rules by accident. |
|
11-18-2017, 11:16 AM | #10 | |
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Portland, Oregon
|
Re: Does Interstellar Trade Make Sense For Realistic Science Fiction?
Quote:
__________________
"The navy could probably win a war without coffee but would prefer not to try"-Samuel Eliot Morrison |
|
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|