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Old 09-06-2017, 11:20 PM   #61
PK
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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Originally Posted by Antiquation! View Post
Just curious, did this rule include the ability to try again at a penalty?
No need. The rules for repeated attempts at surgery, as well as for the positive and negative outcomes of even successful surgery, can be found on p. 138 of Bio-Tech.
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Old 09-07-2017, 12:54 AM   #62
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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Originally Posted by Varyon View Post
It's a good deal more complicated than that -....

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Originally Posted by Ulzgoroth View Post
We've done this thing before, it is a solved problem.
Yes I know. I was actually posting in this thread with that thread in mind, which I also posted in ;-)

So lets see HT12 (so a high HT stat) and the lowest possible bleed penalty for a vital wound (-4) you are likely to take 27 hp's of bleeding damage. So given you must have taken a minimum 3 point wound initially we're talking 30 points of injury and bleeding from the lightest possible wound here. Which on the average person (ST10) brings them down to -20 and 2x death rolls. (and 1x on anyone stronger).

So that's the best possible starting position and a high HT, yeah I think my point stands really.

But OK lets make it a more likely 3 point damage attack on a nice tough HT12 & ST12 target.

So that's a 9 point injury and bleeding penalty of -5 (just missing out on -6) and on average 42 points bleeding for a total 51. Bringing them down to -39 so that's 3x death rolls*


or how about an initial 4 point attack (if we're defaulting to HT/ST12 for our test subject it's not unreasonable to assume they'll maybe facing threats that can inflict bigger wounds) its a 12 point initial wound and average bleeding of 53 points for a total 65 damage leaving them at -53.

...well you get the idea!


(this is why I introduced a SM+1 threshold of surrounding flesh to get past before hitting vitals in my games, for reasons of realism and the 4cm rule, and the game issues of even 1 point vitals wounds)



*you're really going to want that HT12 for all this, as it's what saves you, I won't even bother to do this for HT10 or even HT11.

Last edited by Tomsdad; 09-07-2017 at 03:33 AM.
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Old 09-07-2017, 05:20 AM   #63
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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Originally Posted by Tomsdad View Post
Yes I know. I was actually posting in this thread with that thread in mind, which I also posted in ;-)
I assumed you had forgotten, since the math you were posting here was kind of not good...
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Old 09-07-2017, 05:46 AM   #64
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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Originally Posted by Ulzgoroth View Post
I assumed you had forgotten, since the math you were posting here was kind of not good...
Actually the maths was correct in terms of what I was describing (that is the chance of getting 3 successes in a row, and that is the chance of failing a test and losing a HP to bleeding).
It's just in a wider situation you have (in simple terms) lots of such chances before the window of opportunity closes.

Now if you want to get into discussion about the maths of sub events of different types in isolation and within an ongoing wider event, not to mention strict average result vs. frequency of expected results, then OK but it won't be with me.


But yes have a 'technically correct' point, and also maybe a 'assuming everyone's an idiot' point ;-) as well.

Because yes I get you know a bit of stats, but guess what your not the only one, and as much as I love the sound of my own typing I do occasionally short hand stuff when it's not directly relevant, and dare I say a bit obvious.

Or maybe we could go back to the actual point being discussed, for instance the rest of the post were I used Anthony's figures to illustrate the point I was making?

Last edited by Tomsdad; 09-07-2017 at 06:51 AM.
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Old 09-07-2017, 06:21 AM   #65
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

Ah you know what that was unnecessarily snippy, and it's not like I've never gone for technically correct points in my long history of posting on the internet or come across badly to those I've responded to while doing so.

Sorry!

TD
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Old 09-07-2017, 06:52 AM   #66
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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Wouldn't it be easier to derive a general solution than to run a simulation?
As I said, it was for giggles. It's an excuse to update myself on parallel processing and cryptographic random numbers in .NET 4.5
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Old 09-07-2017, 09:12 AM   #67
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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Originally Posted by Bruno View Post
As I said, it was for giggles. It's an excuse to update myself on parallel processing and cryptographic random numbers in .NET 4.5
Gotcha. I don't do code myself (unless you count setting up the occasional spreadsheet); but I find it fun to work out probability analyses occasionally, especially the recursive ones.
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Old 09-08-2017, 06:40 PM   #68
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Default Re: Surgery - How does it work?

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Originally Posted by PK View Post
No need. The rules for repeated attempts at surgery, as well as for the positive and negative outcomes of even successful surgery, can be found on p. 138 of Bio-Tech.
Oh, that would make sense! Thanks for the page reference and explanation.
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