[Michele]

The USA let Napoleon settle down where he wishes, and give him back the money he was carrying, provided that he isn't bent on stirring up any kind of trouble whatsoever. People coming to visit him will be closely monitored, and quietly questioned after before being admitted and after they leave. He'll be allowed to write his memoirs or things like that, living as a retired foreign VIP.

The moment it seems he's going to cause problems, he'll be threatened to be declared persona non grata. In that case he'd be deported to his country - which doesn't mean he'll be allowed to reach France, but that he'll be delivered to a French ship, manned by a rabidly royalist crew. Theoretically they should bring him to Elba. So maybe he'll stir up trouble on purpose, since Elba is much closer to France.

But who knows what will happen during the journey. Bonapartist corsairs free him and urge him to go back to Paris as the Emperor? Or, more likely, an unfortunate accident takes place? Or the French officially stick to their word that he'll be brought to Elba, but for some reason there is a long, long stop at Fort-de-France, and...