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Originally Posted by TGLS
I suppose it comes down to how the Pacific War went. The Japanese probably would fear provoking the British and the French if they were winning the war in Europe at the time, but they might find themselves going to war anyway if the Americans got their embargo going anyway. If the Japanese never went to war (or won with a Pearl Harbor KO or something), they probably would have continued in China for a long time. If they lost, if Great Power competition started early enough, the Guomindang may have fallen apart in the wake of the CCP, or gone into a prolonged period of turmoil (perhaps with a British Formosa and other colonial enclaves). On the other hand, a "beat on the reds" focused West might have supported Chiang enough to knock out the CCP and unite China.
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You're right, it does matter how the Japanese invasion of China goes. I've been trying to stick with a "big things are the same, medium things are different" theme. I really don't see a way that the imperial Japanese survive to the modern day without a war vs. the US. So the pacific war still occurs, though a touch later than expected.
Japan won't strip the European colonialists of their southern Asian provinces, but it will wreck havoc on the spheres of influence in china, and with decolonization happening, elsewhere, its unlikely they will survive.
Russia ends the war rebuffed, not triumphant, but I don't think that will effect their ability to send arms to china. The Communists may need a boost in this world, and a communist cause led by China rather than Russia is interesting.