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Old 09-13-2019, 10:36 PM   #40
Johnny1A.2
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Default Re: Realistic STL Interstellar Missions

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl View Post
Our velocity has not increased dramatically over the previous 25 years, much less than the proceeding 25 years, due to diminishing returns on investment (11 km/s for Apollo 10 versus 16.2 km/s for New Horizons).
Which proves precisely nothing.

It's true that technology does not advance along the naïve exponentiating curve that some futurists like to imagine. It rises in S curves, slow-fast-slow, then later another S curve, as a rule, when some new development happens.

But whenever one is planning for multi-decade time spans, the risk of an S curve surge (i.e. a breakthrough) is always present, and by its very nature unpredictable.

That's also why trying to plan things centuries in advance is a crapshoot at best.
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