Quote:
Originally Posted by JLV
Thanks for the tip. Too funny -- according to Backertracker, it's trending towards $5 million! Gotta love how that first day skews the results! ;-)
Kickstarter finally updated -- it shows it trending towards $1.2 million. Now that might even be possible! :-D
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For what it's worth and YMMV, etc.
I have found the following:
For the first two days, you will tend to get about X dollars per day
For the last two days, you will tend to get between 50-70% of X per day
For EVERY DARN DAY IN THE MIDDLE, you will tend to get from 1/8 to 1/12 X
Disruptors to this exist:
1) A stretch goal that's wildly popular hits a planned release mid-campaign, or some social media outlet catches wind and provides a note. This is basically the Wil Wheaton/TableTop effect from any source.
2) Saturation is reached midway through; for Hall of Judgment, I was ripping along at $400-500 per day for about half the doldrums, maybe less, then fell to 200-250 for the rest of it. For my case, "X" was about $3,250. So went from 1/7 X per day to 1/13.
3) Something happens to dissuade folks, or it becomes clear that something's rotten in Denmark. Ridiculously unlikely in this case given everything we've seen and activity on the forums, previews, etc.
4) There's been a recent trend of "wait until the last minute" with some KS; when it happens, you get a ridiculously awesome run-away effect. Folks "F5" fingers report for ER care afterwards.
Anyway, that little guess: 2 days of X, 2 days of about 0.6X, and "the rest of the time" at 1/10 X will at least get the missile in the right ballpark of the target.