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Old 04-11-2017, 01:06 PM   #58
whswhs
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lawrence, KS
Default Re: [Basic] Advantage of the Week (#39): Daredevil, Luck, Super Luck

Quote:
Originally Posted by NineDaysDead View Post
That's not actually true. If you have a group of 216 people who all roll a dice 3 times (higher = better), you could expect to get one guy who rolled 6s each time. In the real world, when you look back on peoples lives, some people will have benefited from random events more than the average, and some will have suffered more than average. Buying Luck is saying I want to be the guy who over the total of his lifetime benefits more than average from random events.
That applies retrospectively. There is no prospective aspect to it: The fact that you rolled a 6 three times, or thirty, says nothing about the next roll (well, unless you have a loaded d6!). Prospectively you can say that if you have a group of 216 people, and they all roll a d6 three times, one of them will get three sixes (there's a 63.3% chance of this happening); but you can't say that any single one of them will get three sixes.
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