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Old 03-19-2020, 03:39 PM   #19
Icelander
 
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Iceland*
Default Re: Has COVID hit your gaming?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Polydamas View Post
This spreads like the flu, but more easily. As social activities go, a gaming group should be pretty safe (4-7 people sitting around a spacious table) but do not underestimate this. If you get seasonal flu, you are at risk for this, and while the death rate for people under 60 is low 10-20% of confirmed cases need to be hospitalized.

All it takes is one person with the virus but no symptoms visiting a retirement home to start a chain of death. In the new country, we are locked down, because the only thing that determines whether a country goes like South Korea or Italy is how early in the epidemic they start quarantining. Do not underestimate this or your local papers will fill up with obituaries.
While I agree with the note not to underestimate risks, because we do not want those at risk getting this, I don't think we have adequate data to infer much about hospitalization rates.

Iceland currently has by far the most confirmed cases as a percentage of the population, but only 1% of confirmed cases in Iceland are currently in hospital. This is, obviously, very different from countries like Italy, which actually has a lower percentage of confirmed cases than we do, but much more serious consequences.

Either Italy or Iceland are likely anomalous in terms of hospitalization and death rates. There is some reason to believe that many countries have significantly higher infection rates than the confirmed cases, which would tend to skew hospitalization and death rates upward, because only the most seriously ill are diagnosed.
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