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Originally Posted by maximara
If one uses the alternative 3d6 method things get a lot better as the number to roll doesn't change but the percentage to get it does. A 55% is close enough that we can call it a 10 on a 3d6 (50%).
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A first level warrior of average stats doesn’t have a 55% chance to hit an AC 10 target if using 3d6, he has a 62.5% chance, because he still needs to roll a 9 or higher.
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A piece of paper has AC 11 ie a piece of unmoving paper that can't dodge or pArry has only a 45% chance of being hit and damaged. You can face palm now. :-)
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That’s an oddity of the rules, not an indication that a DnD character has an incredibly low skill. Note a person with average stats (like my warrior, above) who isn’t defending themselves has AC 10 to hit, while one that is defending themselves (but not doing a Full Round Defense, or whatever DnD calls it) has... AC 10 to hit (you don’t see a difference unless the target has a Dex/Dodge/similar bonus to AC).
And, yes, this does mean an unarmored Warrior is easier to hit and damage than a life sized cardboard cutout of him (provided said cutout is thick enough for +1 AC). DnD is weird, which is a big part of why I favor GURPS. This doesn’t mean a character who gets converted from DnD to GURPS should somehow have trouble attacking cardboard.
Edit: I should note my memory of DnD is from 3e/3.5e. For example, your quoted definition of AC sounds more like Flatfooted AC (a surprised/immobile character’s “roll this to hit me” number).