In the John Sanchez thread (
http://forums.sjgames.com/showthread.php?t=20913) something came up that piqued my interest. (Yeah that can happen now and then ;-)). It were the comments about immortality in THS like:
Quote:
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They do [die]. There's no perfect immortality treatment in TS, and the imperfect ones are very imperfect as well as expensive.
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So, I considered to start some deep-minded contemplations about that topic of my own. :)
That done, after some duely hesitation, I decided to open a thread concerning the matter. :P
I want to focus on the Cellular Rejuvenation treatment described on THS p.167 - and its ramifications.
Anyone who undergoes the successful treatment ends up as a "young adult" again...that presumably means age 18 to 20. There are risks involved: temporary amnesia - but this will vanish in days, a few months in the worst cases. More serious is the risk of ending up braindead...and this most likely means REALLY dead in the world of THS. But this risk is quite small: only a critical failure on the skill roll involved results in the subect meeting his/her untimely(?) end. And, assuming that the skill of the treating physician is 16+ - quite likely in the setting I dare say - the chances that it happens are only 1 in 216 in the GURPS system. That would mean a failure rate of less than half of a percent. In other words: if a especially vain person would undergo the cellular rejuvenation treatment at the age of 50 (quite early by the standards of the setting) and then every 50 years thereafter, his or her chances to be able to celebrate his/her 1000th birthday are statistically a bit over 91% ! (A Ziusudra Parahuman would have about the same chance to live to the age of 2000 years). Admittedly this excludes the possibility to die in an accident, as victim of a crime, a war or a catastrophe. But it also assumes that there are no further technological improvements of the technology.
So, from a theoretical standpoint the technology is indeed imperfect and people still die, yes. But it comes quite close to immortality.
But there may be a catch. It is expensive. "Typical costs are around 450.000$". That may seem much, alright. But the fact that this treatment is only necessary once in half a century at best relativates this. The majority of the people in a Fifth Wave nation should be able to afford this. And even if not, it may be possible to get a loan from a bank for this: considering that the recipient can most likely start a new life in which he can pay the money back with juicy interests should make this a sound investment. Even more, the highly developed nations could even consider to let health insurance pay for this...for fairness and equality's sake.
Availability may be another matter. The treament exists since 2088 (THS page 15), so it is only around for 12 years in 2100. That and the expenses may mean that in the THS setting not everybody will enjoy the possibility to undergo cellular rejuvenation, at least not on a globally scale. I don't see the problem for the Fifth Wave nations of Western Europe, Japan, Australia etc. But according to canon the US is classified as a high Fourth Wave nation where "not everyone enjoys complete access to Fifth Waves technologies" albeit with "large Fifth Wave pockets thoughout the country" (Fifth Wave page 21). How this affects the availability of cellular rejuvenation is left to interpretation. China is classified as mainly Fourth Wave, India as partly even Third Wave - that could mean that only a minority have access to the fountain of youth. Same may be the case in large parts of South America. In some states of Africa it may even be the case that only the highest leadership of a state has the possibility to become young again - during a stay in Switzerland perhaps - after which they can return home and continue their good work with renewed vigor.
What does this mean for the overall impact of that technology for the world? In my opinion: quite extensive. In a society in which everyone has himself or herself rejuvenated again when reaching the end of his/her natural lifetime (with a 99.5% chance of success) the number of only 0.1 children per woman would suffice to keep up the population size, at least for the next hundreds of years. Or let's view things from a different angle. The rate of reproduction in Britain is today (2006) around 1.7 children per woman. More than most other European nations, but nontheless this means that the British population will shrink in the future if there is no immigration. If now everyone in Britain would receive the cellular rejuvenation treatment of the THS setting and nothing else is changed, the British society would have the equivalent of a reproduction rate of a society with about 3.7 children per woman. Or in other words, the human population would explode. And that totally leaves out immigrants, sapient AIs, Bioroids or uplifted animals all of which may also contribute to crowding the streets.
Now, it could be that SimonAce has a point with his only child theory. In the England of THS fewer women might decide to have children. Even the possibilty to be rejuvenated might affect this: while in the past the biological clock was ticking, in 2100 one can postpone the decision to procreate for another lifetime or two. Still, any number significantly over 0.1 children per woman will result in an strong increase in population and, let's face it, porcreation is a human instinct.
Its the question wether the possible trend for people to undergo destructive uploading affects the matter. A Ghost that decides to continue his/her (?) normal life, let's say in a bioshell, would actually make the situation worse - a Ghost does not age and thanks to the chance to have a safety copy around, might even come back after an deadly accident, murder or an catastrophe of large proportions.
Conclusion: the ramifications for the societies and therefore their politics of the THS setting may actually be quite severe. Especially the technology of cellular rejuvenation may cause significant demographic shifts. Even overpopulation may become a threat again.
Any thoughts?