[phiwum]

I'm not sure why you averaged the two percentages for a "combined one-shot" attempt.

My characters have never seen a guy in full plate. Most of the guys they see have an adjDX of 9 or better. Those who are supposed to be competitive have adjDX of 10 or 11 or more. Let's calculate the odds of a shield rush knocking an adjDX 10 and ST >= 6 character.

P(knockdown) = P(to-hit) * P(~save)
= 0.95 * 0.75
= 71%

Still quite respectable. Once the adjDX goes up to 12, the odds become less than 50/50.

As far as the dagger to the head shot goes, first you're from one hex away, so you damned well better make the shot. If you miss, he counterattacks with a -1 penalty to hit (your dagger expertise doesn't matter because you're not holding a dagger), so if his adjDX is 9, then his odds to hit (with the -1 penalty) are 26%, not great but that's a low adjDX. You, meanwhile, are unarmed. Next turn, you can choose to draw a dagger, shield-rush or draw and throw a dagger. The first option gives you that -1 modifier to be hit, but the others don't.

In pointing out the problems with heavy armor, you added a full 16lbs of miscellaneous stuff being carried, just so he'd have an additional -1DX. (12lbs would have sufficed.) A labyrinth kit is only 6lbs. Why is he carrying so damned much?

If we apply the same attention to encumbrance rules to your character, he's got a 10lb shield and the daggers weigh a bit less than a pound. I guess he's also carrying 16lbs of miscellaneous stuff, because people just do that or something, so at about 27lbs, he's carrying over 4 times his weight. His MA is 8, not 10, but his DX is unaffected.

ETA: If we apply the armor weight reductions for shields, then he's only carrying 23.8lbs, barely avoiding the MA reduction thanks to the featherweight daggers. I plumb forgot about that in my calculations.

Or is it only non-goblins who carry around needlessly extra weight?

Let's consider your odds against the following figure, with no expertise, but you spent $200 each on four daggers, so let's give him a very fine spear at the same cost. He's spent $960 on equipment, so unless he stuffs his pockets with rocks, he won't be carrying 16lbs of extra stuff.

ST 11, DX 13 (11), IQ 8, MA 8
Weapons: Very fine spear (1d+2), Short sword (2d-1), Dagger (1d-1)
Armor: Leather (2 hits), Small shield (1 hit)

You can shield rush him, but he'll get first hit with an adjDX of 11 (+2 bonus for receiving a charge against the -2 penalty to hit you), doing 2d+2 damage if he hits, for an average result of 4.375 hits after armor.

You can throw a dagger at him. If you do it from one hex away, he gets that same charge reaction. From two hexes, you have an adjDX of 9 to make the head shot, so he'd jab first or dodge. If you throw without aiming at the head, you'll attack first, doing an average of 2.25pts of damage after armor (and ignoring double or triple damage odds). His response will do an average of 1.75pts of damage (-1 modifier to hit because of Shield Expertise). That's a bit less than a third of your ST. Two of those hits and you're in trouble.

If you throw from farther away, your odds of hitting go down and you allow him the possibility of a charge if he moves second, though of course you can defend. Because of your very high DX, he's not keen to shield rush you.

In general, I agree that a starting character with chain mail can be bested by a goblin like you've drawn up, but that goblin isn't his average foe in a roleplaying setting. No one is too concerned about dagger throws to the head with a 50/50 chance of hitting down in the labyrinth. A shield rush attack can be an issue, of course, though as GM I haven't used those much. Perhaps I should. But a heavily armored figure is a tank. He should defend against shield rush, not attack after the fact.

In sum, no, I don't think that chainmail for a starting character is plumb stupid. It would have to be a character built for that purpose. It would help if he isn't filling his pockets with 16lbs of rocks. He'd have a role to play, but it has certain disadvantages.