Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomsdad
you need to make 3 consecutive rolls at 8 which is 0.26x0.26x0.26 = 2%
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It's a good deal more complicated than that - the probability of
never suffering bleeding damage from such a wound is roughly 2%, but you end up with multiple overlapping checks of 2% (~1.75%, actually) over time, with false starts still serving to give you more time on the clock (as you don't suffer damage on a success). Additionally, each roll has a ~1.85% chance of stopping bleeding outright, by rolling a Critical Success. An ST 10, HT 12 individual who suffers a 3 HP injury to the Vitals can expect roughly 23 rolls (as he'll only fail ~74% of them) before he hits the point where he needs to make a death check. The chance of not rolling a Critical Success during that time is 65%. Those 23 rolls also have roughly 21 chances for the 1.75% to come up*, with a 69% of that never happening. There's overlap between the two, and thanks to the possibility of Critical Failures (losing 3 HP) you actually have a bit fewer than 23/21 rolls, but you could probably eyeball things at around a 35% chance of stopping bleeding before the first death check (65% chance of failing to do so). A character with HT 12 has a 74% chance of pulling through a death check without issue (16.7% of a mortal wound, 9.34% of outright death), giving him another 13 or so shots of stopping bleeding. Overall, the character is in bad shape, but is far from guaranteed to die.
*I believe the math for the probability is more involved than this, but I'm not certain how to properly do it, and this is probably good enough for a ballpark estimate.