Quote:
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Originally Posted by hal
It occurs to me that my biggest issue with the history of Yrth is
that the density of population plus the history plus the actual population
figures seem all contradictory. Never one to point out a problem without
trying to find a solution, I think I've hit upon the solution neccessary
for "demographic realism".
Problem: in order to have a population of 3 million in 200 years, assuming
a 2% population growth rate, the colonizing population at start needed
to be 310,000. This is HORRENDOUSLY huge for the resources of DUKE of
Craine - ie, beyond his capability to set up on his own, let alone for a
3rd son. Using a 2% growth rate means that the population of Megalos
around 200 years in the past, would have been roughly 2 million population.
Clearly NOT realistic in light of the history of Megalos.
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Well I think that assuminig uniform urowth rate in Megalos
across 200 years is wrong .. IMO Megalos had very high growth rate at it's
early history but it become much lower at it's latter history
(but probaly at it's beginig it was quite low becouse all human seletments
were just trying to survive and try to build up infrastructure)
Adding to this fact that humans were seletting in new land with foregin
microbal life (potential to many new diseases .. perchaps some of them may
be magicaly based ie. as part of it's efect invoking some magic based efects
on victims), competition with other sentient races (Orcs,Goblins, Halfings,
Kobolds and to some degree Elves and Dwarfes) and some of teh brinig
problay own diseases. With so many unknowns nubers you give for Megalos
population are quite prbable (so would figures biger
or smaler by fraction of x-.5-x2). It's not numbers nubers that are problem but
what you make of them. IMO barrinig or gettinig lighly on new
diseases Meglos population should be higer in 2000AD, if we assume significant
influence of new diseases we may get our target population.
Let's assume that your numbers as starting point so 200 years ago we had
5-9 milions of humans in Megalos(assuming taht in next 200 years they had
0.5-1%growth rate)and need around 200-400 thousands of setters in Caithiness
in order to have 3M population 200 years latter(with 2% growth).
It implies of course that Caithiness is growing much faster than Megalos but
you can fator in this taht during those 200 years Meglasoe would 'export'
significat portion of it's own growth to Caithiness (with would explain
in part it's own 0.5-1% efective growth). But why people would want to move?
My bet is on climate change resulting in series of bad harvest in Megalos
with might result in starvation in population dense areas of Megalos,
combined with outbreaks of diseases (badly fed peple are more prone to fall
ill). Combine this with charismatic and clewer leader who know value of good
propaganda of good air(no diseases), frefitle land in the west.
All you need initial and sucessfull expedition/expedions of 5-20 thousands
people followed by increasinig numbers after initial sucess. So in the end
you can get 200-300K (K=10^3) of initial population within 20-40 years(that's migration of 5-10K people per year on average).
DICLAIMER: I haven't read Banestorm yet.. it's all based on your figures
form other Banestorm thread and what I rember form old Yrth worldbook.
So if I made grevious error please point it, not pound me with it :P