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Originally Posted by Drifter
I was just trying to gloss over the (hard to justify) fact that early 20th century scientists did not take atomic weapons seriously.
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They didn't immediately jump to atomic bombs as a conclusion, but the idea of a powerful energy source was interesting, and the atmosphere of the time made people think of military applications. And bombs were a fairly obvious possibility. It's notable that just about every competent nuclear physicist of the time reached the same conclusions fairly quickly after hearing about fission caused by neutrons. The atomic bomb was never a secret on that level, although the knowledge of precisely how to do it was worth keeping secret. Note that every nation that has tried to test an atom bomb appears to have succeeded on the first try.
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If the Germans didn't think nukes were viable, Einstein doesn't write his famous letter. Nazis chase after the Grail instead of funding their nuke project.
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The letter was based on the possibility of atomic power, Germany's good supply of physicists, and the German reputation for high technology, more than any knowledge of a German project.