Quote:
Originally Posted by evileeyore
I think your numbers* are off.
Unseen foes standing still (-2), at 31 yards (-4), at base stats only, gives the...
Cleric an 8 (Per 14), Knight a 4 (10), Thief an 8 (14), and the Wizard a 6 (Per 12).
At 127 yards (-6), with movement (-0), it's the same. Your best roll is an 8.
* Maybe there's some weird statistics going on where two rolls at 25% yield a 51% chance...
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If they all roll (as per the Example of Play in Exploits), the chance of nobody noticing at 31 yards is 98.15% * 90.74% * 74.07% * 74.07% ~= 48.9%.
Flipping the formula, then, you get a 51.1% chance of someone hearing - probably the Thief or Cleric, to be honest. Taking the guidance of the Example of Play, however, that is more than enough for them to warn the rest of the party and avoid surprise.
The important thing to remember whenever you're figuring statistics with multiple rolls is that if you only need one success then you can just figure out what the chance of
nobody succeeding is and subtract that from 100%. The more straightforward 25%*25% is only useful when
both need to succeed.
In any case, the chance is lowered if up against a monster with good Stealth or Camouflage. And there's a few of those that are really nasty - good luck beating the Stealth-25 of a motionless Demon from Between the Stars in the dark!