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Old 02-08-2019, 10:42 AM   #9
Michael Thayne
 
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Join Date: May 2010
Default Re: [Spaceships] How does large-scale space warfare play out (without superscience)?

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlexanderHowl View Post
Each gunner program is effectively a different character though, so it is a 2% chance per gunner program. If each program of the drones targets a different missile volley, and multiple drones target the same volley, you will have a much higher chance that someone will succeed. For example, if a volley of 10 missiles is attacked by one turret from four different drones, the cumulative chance of all four gunner programs missing is 1:6,250,000. With 900 drones, you can cover 600 ten missile volleys with 6 gunner programs/turrets each, meaning that the probability that any missile will penetrate is pretty low (mathematically, the chances of one missile penetrating is around 1:2,000,000 on a 20-second scale).
Yup! This is where having a numerical advantage so you can assign multiple PD guns to each salvo is helpful. How large the numerical advantage needs to be actually depends on an unanswered rules question I posed a few months ago:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Thayne View Post
If multiple gunners are possibly going to fire in point-defense against an attack, do they all have to declare before any dice are rolled? Or can gunner #2 wait until seeing if gunner #1 got the job done? This potentially has a big impact on the number of point-defense gunners you need to defend large, valuable targets, where a 2% chance the target gets hit by a nuke is not acceptable.
By the first interpretation, you might want two or more PD lasers for every missile launcher your opponent has. By the second interpretation, having 10% more PD lasers than your opponent has launchers might be fine.
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