Quote:
Originally Posted by patchwork
WIP: Emir...
|
Intriguing, delightful, and a wonderful change to the formulaic dreck routinely posted in this thread. That being said...
Without a US entry in WW1, the Entente will be unable to raise loans by early 1917, its war effort would be greatly effected, and the Ottomans will not fall.
The newly created Federal Reserve took its job very seriously at the time and in late 1916 had recommended much stricter collateral guidelines for any new Entente loans made by US banks. The Wilson Administration, which had wobbled between each side since 1914 and which was currently more anti-Entente than pro-Central Powers thanks to UK intransigence regarding mails and the failure of the armed merchant ship bill in Congress, accepted the Fed's recommendations without qualm. The new collateral guidelines meant that the next round of Entente loans negotiated in the spring of '17 would either be relatively small or entirely nonexistent.
(Historically, no new
private loans were needed after the spring of '17 because
US government loans were available instead. Rather than wait for the credit trap to snap shut, Wilhelmine Germany decided to shoot itself in it's own genitalia by announcing unrestricted submarine warfare and dispatching the Zimmermann Telegram. The latter, which approached Mexico with plans for a German, Mexican, and
Japanese alliance to attack the US did what 28 months of neutral merchantman sinkings could not and brought the US into the war.)
With the UK supporting both France and Russia through it's own borrowing in the US, this clamping down on credit would have been ruinous. The best the Entente could hope for would be a "white peace" with significant gains going to the Central Powers. All that means that the Ottoman Empire isn't going to fall in this timeline.
While Sherif Hussein's revolt in the summer of '16 after his son brings news that the government in Constantinople are planning to overthrow him and Murray's late '16/early '17 offensive out of Egypt to clear the Sinai and reach Gaza will most still most likely occur, Allenby's masterful offensive during the summer of '17 that cleared Palestine and broke the Ottomans will not occur because the UK will not be able to afford both it and continued operations on the Western Front.
The Ottoman Empire is going to survive the war and their "victorious" allies, Wilhelmine Germany, will be in a good position to assist them in crushing the various internal rebellions the war sparked. Those crackdowns, perhaps coupled with an increased push for secularization by victorious Young Turk faction, could give you the increased Muslim emigration your timeline needs.
The Ottoman Empire, however, will not collapse in your timeline absent some other POD.