View Single Post
Old 04-11-2017, 04:28 AM   #38
KarlKost
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Brazil
Default Re: [Basic] Advantage of the Week (#39): Daredevil, Luck, Super Luck

Quote:
Originally Posted by whswhs View Post
I don't believe that anyone has "luck" as a substantive thing in the real world. There are random fluctuations, and we call them "luck" when they're favorable and large (or "bad luck" when unfavorable and large); but no one has a persistent tendency to get favorable or unfavorable random outcomes. The dice have no memory. As Ecclesiastes say, "Time and chance happeneth to them all."

And I have a strong desire for verimilitude in my fictional worlds.

Now, I'm willing to set this aside if one of the premises of the world is, say, the favor of gods or spirits, or a psionic ability to influence random events. That's exploring a fantastic premise. But I just don't buy Luck as a mundane trait; nor as a meta-level narratively granted blessing. "Oh, he's the hero, things will turn out right for him!" Though I might well allow a character to have a belief in their own luck as a Delusion.
Well, on a "metaphysical" level, yes, I agree, there is no such a thing as "Luck", the universe does not conspire in favor of its "favorite ones" (nor does it tries to screw its hated ones). Ok, thats fine.

However...

How about on a statiscal level?

As you said yourself, there are fluctuations.

Why? Well, simple, because random events are... Well... Random.

For example: lets say that, the AVERAGE change for ANY person to find money on the street, on every week, is about of 1/250 or, better, 1/5 per year, and the average amount find is of $20. We could also say that each person on the planet will find $100 on the street every 25 years.

Does that mean that ALL people in the Earth will find EXACTLY $100 each 25 years? No, of course not. Some will find $200. Some $1000. Maybe one, 1 million. And some, nothing. So, in statistics, randomness GENERATES Luck and Unluckness.

Last edited by KarlKost; 04-11-2017 at 04:34 AM.
KarlKost is offline   Reply With Quote