[Apollonian]

Interesting problems here, then: How has the North African front gone, and where does Turkey stand in relation to the rival powers?

From your description, quick victory in Russia doesn't help on the African front all that much; many of the divisions that would be useful in Africa are tied up in counter-insurgency operations instead. (Maybe that's what really lets the Russian Resistance get off the ground: flush with victory, the Germans transfer more troops than they should to Africa, and are forced to recall them later...)

If they're worried about Nazi Germany replacing Russia as their great threat across the Black Sea, they might let the Allies take some liberties - nothing like allowing warships through the Bosphorous, but perhaps looking the other way at special ops or raiding to cripple the oil barges.

On the other hand, Turkey might throw its hand in with the Axis. While it probably won't contribute a lot of firepower, it turns the Black Sea and maybe the Eastern Med into an Axis lake; no problem with oil supply there, since you can ship it to the Balkans, Italy, maybe even Marseille.

Of course, both the Allies and Axis are going to be keenly aware of these possibilities, so Ankara and Istanbul are going to be very interesting places to set an espionage game...