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Originally Posted by Agemegos
1d-2 averages 1.5 only if you allow that a roll of 1 does negative damage. Given a minimum of 1 point (before DR), the average is (1 + 1 + 1 + 2 +3 +4)/6 = 2.
Fred the Ninja's best chance looks like stabbing with his large knife for Thr impaling damage instead of chopping with it for Sw-2 cutting. So he is doing 1d-2 impaling, and can target the vitals for triple damage or the eye for quadruple.
Fred takes an all-out attack, of course. If he does a strong attack that is 1d tripled or quadrupled (depending on whether he targets the eye or kidney), producing a major wound on any roll except a 1. If he does a double attack, either one will inflict a major wound on a roll of 4, 5, or 6. So the double attack will do 14% more damage on average, but the strong attack has an 83% chance of inflicting a major wound, and the double attack has only 75% chance of inflicting at least one major wound.
In the situation specified, Fred the ninja assassin should take an all-out attack and stab the sentry strongly in the eye for 83% chance of a major wound.
What is the optimal strategy for Eddie, a ST11 commando?
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When you assume that your Fred the ninja hit automaticaly (which is IMO wrong) he should go for eye.
Most important is not x4 damage mod. but -10 for knockout roll.
In this low power setup will not be enough damage to actually kill someone, but with failed knockout roll by 5 or more victim pass out. (and probably will bleed to death)
And what will realy help is Extra Effort. (+2 base damage per attack)