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Yssa · 11-13-2019, 04:41 PM

I want to take a look at the possibility of just skipping the first two rolls (Fast-Draw Arrow, Ready Bow) and instead placing a -4 penalty to the bow skill attack roll. This penalty is the sum of the -3 for trying to hurry (described in the heroic archer advantage) and an additional -1 to take the place of the other rules.

I'm going to start out assuming that the scout will be rolling against a 16 for each of these rolls, since if you're spending the points on heroic archer, you might as well buy those skills as high enough that your odds of failure are minimal, and then look at some permutations from there. This means Having Fast-Draw (Arrow) (16) and Bow (19).

So, if there are no penalties (good conditions, <3 yards, unfogged mind) the odds of failure for each are ~1.9%, or cumulatively 5.7% of failure when trying to draw and shoot on a single turn. A -4 penalty to a Bow (19) would mean rolling against a 15, with odds of success at 95.4% and a 4.5% chance of failure, which is close enough to 5.7 for my tastes.

In practice though, the scout is never going to roll against a 15: they are just going to put four more points into the bow skill, to eat the extra -1 for quick draw, and roll against a sixteen. Now you do have a real change in odds: with three rolls, no matter how high the scout buys their skills, they can't shaek the 5.7% chance of a fail, but now they've gotten themselves down to that maxxed out 1.9% fail per shot = Problemo (maybe? I don't know if I actually care, but for the sake of argument let's assume I do).

The reality is though, how often is the archer taking an unpenalized shot? The value of the scout in combat is attacking at range or targeting the soft spots, or a combination of both. For the sake of example, lets say the archer (Quck Draw (16)/Bow Skill (20)) is shooting at ten yards, causing a penalty of -4 to hit. With three rolls, they would roll against 16 (1.9% fail), 17 (1.9% fail), 13 (16.2% fail) for a total failure rate of 20%. With one roll, they roll versus 12 (20 -4 for house rule quick draw, -4 for range) which leads to a 25.9% fail rate, making it disadvantageous for the archer.

Narratively, I kind of like this: when the shootin' is easy the extra flourish of fast draw is unlikely to affect the archer; when aiming for the eye through the snow on the run, the riskiness of trying to fire quickly is elevated.

11-13-2019, 04:41 PM	#11
Yssa Join Date: Mar 2019	Re: Heroic Archer House Rule I want to take a look at the possibility of just skipping the first two rolls (Fast-Draw Arrow, Ready Bow) and instead placing a -4 penalty to the bow skill attack roll. This penalty is the sum of the -3 for trying to hurry (described in the heroic archer advantage) and an additional -1 to take the place of the other rules. I'm going to start out assuming that the scout will be rolling against a 16 for each of these rolls, since if you're spending the points on heroic archer, you might as well buy those skills as high enough that your odds of failure are minimal, and then look at some permutations from there. This means Having Fast-Draw (Arrow) (16) and Bow (19). So, if there are no penalties (good conditions, <3 yards, unfogged mind) the odds of failure for each are ~1.9%, or cumulatively 5.7% of failure when trying to draw and shoot on a single turn. A -4 penalty to a Bow (19) would mean rolling against a 15, with odds of success at 95.4% and a 4.5% chance of failure, which is close enough to 5.7 for my tastes. In practice though, the scout is never going to roll against a 15: they are just going to put four more points into the bow skill, to eat the extra -1 for quick draw, and roll against a sixteen. Now you do have a real change in odds: with three rolls, no matter how high the scout buys their skills, they can't shaek the 5.7% chance of a fail, but now they've gotten themselves down to that maxxed out 1.9% fail per shot = Problemo (maybe? I don't know if I actually care, but for the sake of argument let's assume I do). The reality is though, how often is the archer taking an unpenalized shot? The value of the scout in combat is attacking at range or targeting the soft spots, or a combination of both. For the sake of example, lets say the archer (Quck Draw (16)/Bow Skill (20)) is shooting at ten yards, causing a penalty of -4 to hit. With three rolls, they would roll against 16 (1.9% fail), 17 (1.9% fail), 13 (16.2% fail) for a total failure rate of 20%. With one roll, they roll versus 12 (20 -4 for house rule quick draw, -4 for range) which leads to a 25.9% fail rate, making it disadvantageous for the archer. Narratively, I kind of like this: when the shootin' is easy the extra flourish of fast draw is unlikely to affect the archer; when aiming for the eye through the snow on the run, the riskiness of trying to fire quickly is elevated.