[Skarg]

Ok, so I finally got around to looking at this in more detail.

My conclusion is that the TFT rolling to miss have problems.

The original Melee version is trying to be simple yet keep map positions meaningful. It works ok as far as that goes (in an arena context) by refusing rolls to miss foes, but is kind of gamey and makes it weirdly likely to hit friends for double or triple damage.

The Advanced Melee and ITL version alters that a bit, but has weirder gamey side effects because you can roll to miss foes and get a much higher chance than usual to get double or triple damage hits. e.g. That creates a Murphy's tactic where if say the opponent has heavy armor, it might be better to try to miss him to get a much higher chance of double or triple damage. And the "high weapon falls to the ground" if you miss unless you roll a 14 or more is weird too.

Much better (in my opinion, since they make much more sense to me) are the rules for rolling to miss in GURPS, which actually seem less complex than the TFT rules to me. Skill levels are a bit different in GURPS though, and leaving out the details about posture, a version I might suggest adapted to TFT might look like:

When there are figures along a line of fire other than the target, first roll to hit the target. The roll is at -4 if there is a figure standing between the firer and the target, and an additional -2 for each additional intervening figure, plus the range and cover penalties, etc.

If the intended target is missed, then roll to see if the other targets along the line of fire are hit, starting with the closest, then the next closest, etc. Friend or foe, the attack is at the firer's adjDX, minus the same penalties for intervening figures, range, cover, etc (but not Blur or Invisibility), or 8, whichever is LESS.