Quote:
Originally Posted by Ulzgoroth
I assumed you had forgotten, since the math you were posting here was kind of not good...

Actually the maths was correct in terms of what I was describing (that
is the chance of getting 3 successes in a row, and that
is the chance of failing a test and losing a HP to bleeding).
It's just in a wider situation you have (in simple terms) lots of such chances before the window of opportunity closes.
Now if you want to get into discussion about the maths of sub events of different types in isolation and within an ongoing wider event, not to mention strict average result vs. frequency of expected results, then OK but it won't be with me.
But yes have a 'technically correct' point, and also maybe a 'assuming everyone's an idiot' point ;) as well.
Because yes I get you know a bit of stats, but guess what your not the only one, and as much as I love the sound of my own typing I do occasionally short hand stuff when it's not directly relevant, and dare I say
a bit obvious.
Or maybe we could go back to the actual point being discussed, for instance the rest of the post were I used Anthony's figures to illustrate the point I was making?