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Old 08-17-2017, 11:18 PM   #4
hcobb
 
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Pacheco, California
Default Re: Raid scenario variant

Doing the math:

3xHW in a town: 12 VPs

Attacker is doubled due to concentration of force against a static defense and what not. 4xGEVs

3xGEVs fire for a 1-2 attack on the inf: 16% all gone, 16% reduced. 16% chance that the town is damaged.

GEVs scatter and HWs follow out into the clear. If all 3 squads survived they get three 1-1s giving one X and one D.

Two GEVs fire giving 33% X and 33% D.

Even if two squads survive to this point that only gives them a 67% chance of Xing the disabled GEV.

So the final result is a 5/6th x 2/3rds x 5/6th = 46% chance that the Heavy Weapons actually inflict their own 12 VPs in damage before all dying.

Conclusion: Heavy Weapon Squads can't pay for themselves.
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Last edited by hcobb; 08-17-2017 at 11:28 PM. Reason: Math error Cobb, always dropping a critical term.
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