Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny1A.2
Something else to keep in mind is that Realist theory is unrealistic, because it treats nation-states (and other sorts of governments) as monolithic. In fact, they're abstractions. The decisions about your PCs and their fellow 'supers' will be taken by individual humans in high-up, connected places, and will have a lot to do with their political agendas interior to their states, and their personal beliefs and goals and agendas, as well as 'national interest'.
So even if Country D is a small state, with no obvious benefit from being involved in all this and a lot of risk of annoying the Big Boys, their intel people might still get involved, maybe in a serious way, if something about the whole business catches the personal interest of somebody high up in Country D, for whatever reason.
So, if your 'story' requires that a small country get mixed in, it's perfectly plausible that it might happen.
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I agree that the Realist theory is an unrealistic abstraction which ignores many factors in each individual case. On the other hand, as an abstraction, the Realist theory manages to adequately explain the behaviour of most nation states most of the time. The irrational human factors apply in all directions and tend to cancel each other out over time, though they may absolutely be significant in individual cases.
In any case, I'm not the GM. I am a player invested with the additional hats of Assistant GM and Research Assistant. It is my job to ensure that the GM has enough knowledge about the real-world and the plausibility of various things to make sensible decisions about the campaign.
I must therefore find out the likely reactions of various nation states to the fleeing test subjects from Project Jade Serenity and the GM will then decide where they are headed, who might be helping them and so forth. Unfortunately, the situation in game seems to be one where countries in the Americas are most likely to feature. The GM has a background in IR, but his studies focused on Europe and Asia. I've taken IR courses myself, but all focused on the EU, Nato and Icelandic relations with the rest of the world. US relations with individual Central and South American countries is an area I don't know much about.
The story requires that
some country be potentially ready to accept the fleeing test subjects. As far as I know, however, it can be any country that makes sense in real-world terms. In any case, I'll try to determine what the most likely countries are and the GM will then decide. If he decides that it is a less likely country, so be it. At least I'll have done my best to ensure plausibility and world-building coherence.
To give some more background:
Col. Alejandro Ortiz is the leader of a group of former test subjects who have deserted from the US Army and are presumably fleeing for a country where they will be given asylum. As Col. Ortiz was and probably is extraordinarily intelligent and he is experienced at planning covert operations, it would be unlikely for him to run without preparing plans for escape.
Given what my character knew about him, he would not have deserted unless he felt that his country had betrayed him and his men, but obviously, my character knew him only in 1997-2011 and couldn't have known whether Col. Ortiz is still the same man as he was or if the side effects of the experiments have warped his sense of reality. The Ortiz my character knew was a patriot, the best type of honourable military officer, but more than that, someone who joined US Special Forces because he earnestly believed in the motto: '
De oppresso liber'.
Unless something strange happened, Col. Ortiz will be acting from the best motives. Of course, that's no guarantee that he's acting rightly. Using fictional tropes, we don't know if Col. Ortiz will be a reluctant antagonist like Gen. Hummel in 'The Rock', if he's going full-on 'Brotherhood of Evil Mutants' for sympathetic reasons, but must be stopped, or if he's actually trying to found the equivalent of Professor Xavier's School for Gifted Youngsters and we should be on his side.
From his professional background, Col. Ortiz would have many contacts among the senior officer corps in Latin American countries, especially those who came up through special operations units. As his last job before organising the desertion of his men was the J2 (Director of Intelligence) on the US SOCOM South staff, Col. Ortiz would retain those contacts and have a good current overview of the intelligence and security situation in South and Central America. He'd also be in a position to make private contact with senior military and intelligence people from any country in that part of the world.
Assuming that Col. Ortiz remains essentially himself, he would prefer fleeing to a country with a good record of human rights. At minimum, he would require promises that he would trust that he and his men would receive good treatment, some degree of personal freedom and security.
I think that almost any nation state would theoretically have the resources to help Col. Ortiz. It would probably not cost more than half a million dollars, at most a million, to assist him and his men to emigrate to a given country, assuming that Col. Ortiz and his men handled actually escaping from the US. This was done during a mission Col. Ortiz planned in Mexico.
Taking advantage of the intelligence they could give on Project Jade Serenity and absorbing the costs of him and his men living there for the foreseeable future would probably need a budget of several million dollars a year, but any large international company has that kind of money and most governments, given the political will, could muster it. Obviously, the larger and more powerful the country, the comparatively smaller the outlay and hence, the easier it is to get approved.
The direct financial outlay, however, is miniscule compared to the damage to the relationship with the US that would result from giving asylum to people that the US will not doubt brand traitors, terrorists* and threats to their national security. Any nation state that relies on a good relationship with the US would need to weigh the potential benefits of having functioning supersoldier serum at some point in the future very carefully against the probable loss of all security cooperation with the US.
Now, with these facts in mind, which countries is Col. Ortiz likely to have considered and what are the pros and cons of each?
*Not that they are planning any terrorism, but I'm pretty sure they'd find a way to apply the term.